Did Wicked Reveal the Future of Digital Film Releases?

The film landscape has changed significantly over the past decade. For the longest time, the process followed a predictable (and arguably proven) pattern: first came the theatrical release, then [insert your favorite home video format here], and finally, licensing deals for TV broadcasts. But then something new entered the scene: streaming services! And they disrupted this successful pattern considerably.

Since the rise of Netflix and its competitors, and especially since the COVID-19 pandemic, studios have experimented with a variety of approaches, discarding many along the way. Some films premiered directly on streaming platforms, others were released simultaneously in theaters and as video-on-demand (VOD)—sometimes with additional costs, sometimes without. Occasionally, theatrical releases were skipped altogether, or the film received only a limited release in select theaters—an effective strategy when streaming platforms aim to attract certain actors or directors to their projects.

But thanks to the phenomenal success of Wicked, we may have found the golden path for film releases, at least when it comes to major productions. With surprising transparency, Universal has shared figures about Wicked‘s digital release. The cinematic adaptation of the musical (which itself adapts the book telling the backstory of the classic The Wizard of Oz) has raked in a whopping $70 million in just one week—only in the U.S. and Canada! This makes it Universal Pictures’ most successful VOD title by far; the previous record-holder was The Super Mario Bros. Movie, which earned $44 million in its first week.

Since Wicked will remain exclusively available for digital purchase or rental in the U.S. for another two months, revenues are bound to climb. At the same time, the film continues to perform well in theaters, where it has already grossed over $680 million worldwide. Audiences, it seems, are still flocking to theaters despite the digital availability—perhaps due to the relatively high price for renting ($20) or buying ($30) the film in the U.S.

One thing is clear: theatrical releases remain essential for creating cultural relevance. This sentiment is echoed by Universal’s management, which views the so-called premium VOD model (i.e., with additional fees) as a supplement to theatrical releases, not a replacement. A lucrative supplement, mind you, since studios currently keep around 80% of online revenue, compared to roughly 50% from theater earnings (a percentage that can vary).

Regardless of revenue shares and profits, I consider Wicked’s strategy a good middle ground. I’m thrilled that films continue to have exclusive theatrical runs instead of going straight to streaming. That’s not to say I have anything against movies debuting on Netflix or similar platforms, but I still cherish the experience of watching a long-anticipated film with friends at the cinema. That’s something I don’t want to give up in the next decade—or ever.